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Coherence (philosophical gambling strategy)
In a thought experiment proposed by the Italian probabilist Bruno de Finetti in order to justify Bayesian probability, an array of wagers is coherent precisely if it does not expose the wagerer to certain loss regardless of the outcomes of events on which he is wagering, even if his opponent makes the most judicious choices.
==Operational subjective probabilities as wagering odds==
One must set the price of a promise to pay $1 if John Smith wins tomorrow's election, and $0 otherwise. One knows that one's opponent will be able to choose either to buy such a promise from one at the price one has set, or require one to buy such a promise from him/her, still at the same price. In other words: Player A sets the odds, but Player B decides which side of the bet to take. The price one sets is the "operational subjective probability" that one assigns to the proposition on which one is betting.
If one decides that John Smith is 12.5% likely to win -- an arbitrary valuation -- one might then set an odds of 7/1 against. This arbitrary valuation --the "operational subjective probability" -- determines the payoff to a successful wager. $1 wagered at these odds will produce either a loss of $1 (if Smith wins) or a win of $8 (if Smith should lose). If the $1 is placed in pledge as a condition of the bet, then the $1 will also be returned to the bettor, should the bettor win the bet.
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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